BONITA SPRINGS, Fla. — A drought in Texas and the Southwest that could spread to the western Corn Belt and the Northern Plains is the biggest danger in farm weather this season, Matthew Reardon, the senior atmospheric scientist for Conduit Ag told The Crop Insurance and Reinsurance Bureau meeting here last week. 

Drought is the “big whale” this year, Reardon said in a speech on Thursday, noting that drought has been expanding over the last eight weeks and it could expand further. 

The eastern Corn Belt is “fairly wet,” he said. But New Orleans has gotten as much snow as Chicago this year, he added. 

Reardon traced his family history from Genoa, Italy, which was an important shipping port centuries ago. One of the greatest risks in shipping as well as agriculture has always been weather.

The Panama Canal connects two oceans, but it is a freshwater canal and it is dependent on fresh water from rain to drive the locks, he said. Panama had a lower water level a few years ago but the water level has been increasing since 2024, he added. 

Tornadoes have been shifting farther east from the traditional Tornado Alley in Texas and Oklahoma, Reardon said, and there have been more nocturnal hurricanes. The prediction for hurricanes is not as high in 2025 as it was in 2024, he said. 

He also noted that billion-dollar disasters from storms have been growing.

Reardon warned the crop insurers and farmers not to believe anyone who claims to predict local weather more than a week or two in advance. “Meteorologists cannot predict beyond seven to 14 days where weather will occur,” he said.