The Agriculture Department announced the nation’s September benchmark Class III milk price at $23.34 per hundredweight, up $2.68 from August, $4.95 above September 2023, and the highest Class III price since June 2022. That put the 2024 average at $18.37, up from $17.13 at this time a year ago, and compares to $22.24 in 2022.

The Friday, Oct. 4 Class III futures settlements portend an October price at $22.56; November, $21.39; December, $20.86; and January 2025 was at $20.22 per cwt.

The September Class IV price is $22.29, up 71 cents from September, $3.20 above a year ago, and the highest Class IV since November 2022. Its average stands at $20.69, up from $18.65 a year ago, and compares to $24.81 in 2022.

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U.S. milk production showed a little recovery, according to the Agriculture Department’s latest preliminary data. August output totaled 18.8 billion pounds, down just 0.1% from August 2023, the 14th consecutive month output was below a year ago, but barely. The 24-State output, at 18.1 billion pounds, was up 0.1%.

July output in the 50 states was unchanged from last month’s report while the 24-State total was reduced 1 million pounds, down 0.3% from a year ago, instead of the 0.2% decline originally reported.

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The Sept. 20 Daily Dairy Report points out “Milk output in August 2023 was 1% lower than the year before. Continued improvements in milk component levels suggest that dairy processors will have more dairy nutrients to work with than they did in August 2023.”

August 2024 cow numbers totaled 9.325 million head, unchanged from the July count which saw no revision, but was 40,000 head or 0.4% below August 2023. The 24-State count, at 8.878 million head, was also unchanged from July but 28,000 head or 0.3% below a year ago as U.S. farmers cull less and keep cows in the string longer due the high cost of replacements, if you can find them.

August output per cow in the 50 states averaged 2,018 pounds, up 8 pounds or 0.4% from a year ago. The 24-State average, at 2,036 pounds, was up 8 pounds or 0.4% from a year ago.

“States that had bird flu early have fully recovered,” said StoneX, “With output per cow back above a year ago in Texas, New Mexico, Michigan and Idaho. Output per cow improved in Colorado, hit hard in June and July, but it started spreading in California in mid to late August.” The No. 1 milk producer had 53 cases confirmed as of Oct. 2, which will likely be reflected in the September report.

California’s August production was up 67 million pounds or 2.0% from a year ago, thanks to a 45 pound gain per cow offsetting a drop of 5,000 cows.

That’s the biggest increase in two years and more than offset Wisconsin’s drop of 64 million pounds, down 2.3% from a year ago, due to a 45 pound drop per cow and 3,000 fewer cows.

Arizona was down 6.5%, on a 12,000 cow drop and 10 pounds less per cow. Idaho was up 0.3% on 1,000 more cows and a 5 pound gain per cow.

Michigan was off 0.3% on 3,000 fewer cows but output per cow was up 10 pounds. Colorado output was unchanged from a year ago, despite a 20 pound loss per cow. Cow numbers were up 2,000 head.

Minnesota was down 2.8% on 8,000 fewer cows and 20 pounds less per cow. New York was down 1.2% on a 25 pound drop per cow. Cow numbers were unchanged.

New Mexico posted the biggest loss, down 11.3%, on a drop of 31,000 cows, although output per cow was up 5 pounds. Oregon was down 1.4% on 2,000 fewer cows, though output per cow was up 5 pounds. Pennsylvania was down 2.0% on 1,000 fewer cows and 30 pounds less per cow.

South Dakota posted the biggest increase, up 8.5%, thanks to 16,000 more cows, and 5 pounds more per cow. Texans put 7.8% more milk in the tank than a year ago and 20,000 more cows in the parlor, and they gave an extra 95 pounds per cow.

Washington State output was up 1.3% on 3,000 more cows. Output per cow was up 5 pounds.

Lots of eyes were on the International Longshoremen Association dockworkers strike at 36 United States Maritime Alliance terminals along the East and Gulf Coast last week. A new six-year labor contract was given a thumbs down.

The National Milk Producers Federation and the Dairy Export Council called on the Biden Administration to immediately intervene, warning “This disruption could have a devastating impact on American dairy farmers and exporters who rely on the smooth functioning of these ports to get products to international markets.”

Dockworkers agreed to return to work Thursday after port operators enhanced their offer, extending the existing contract through Jan. 15, 2025. Other issues will have to be negotiated in the meantime, including automation in the ports.

CME cheese prices continued their descent ahead of the Friday, Oct. 4 August Dairy Products report. The Cheddar blocks closed Oct 4 at $1.9475 per pound, down 16.25 cents on the week, lowest since Aug. 8, down 26.75 cents from their Sept. 3 print, but still 24.50 cents above a year ago.

The barrels fell to $2.1450 per pound Tuesday, regained 0.75 cents Wednesday, but closed Oct. 4 at $1.9550, lowest CME price since Aug. 7, down 34.25 cents on the week, down 30.50 cents on the month, but 37.75 cents above a year ago and 0.75 cents above the blocks.

Sales totaled 12 loads of block on the week and 34 for the month of September, down from 61 in August. There were four trades on barrel for the week and 21 for the month, down from 23 in August.

Dairy Market News reports that contacts say cheese demand has stalled somewhat. Others are preparing for a busy holiday retail demand season, including work on gift baskets and other special orders. Barrel processors say they have had a slight growth in availability for spot market offers, but extra loads are moving briskly. Spot milk prices mid-week were above-Class levels, primarily due to some plants coming back online after recent downtime, said DMN.

Class III milk demand from cheese makers is steady in the West. Bottling demand continues to tug on milk supplies and some processors indicate that milk is tighter than a year ago however it can be obtained. Cheese output is steady along with contractual demand. Seasonally tighter milk volumes and a strong mozzarella market have contributed to tighter barrel stocks, according to DMN. Demand is steady from domestic and international buyers.

Butter started last week jumping 7.25 cents, with 16 loads traded, but it headed lower from there, closing Oct. 4 at $2.6875 per pound, down 4.50 cents on the week, 46.50 cents lower on the month, and 81.50 cents below a year ago. There were 59 sales on the week and 102 for the month, down from 223 in August.

Churning in the Central region is busy as current and mid-term cream availability is at unprecedented levels. Multiples below 1.20 were reported this week, and butter makers say they are getting offers from the West and, atypically, even East region sources. Hurricane Helene’s effects were backing up cream moving to normal destinations in the East. Butter demand is steady to quiet, said DMN.

Western butter manufacturers note retail production is strong or steady and bulk production is strong to lighter. Stocks are being built to cover upcoming churn maintenance as well as anticipated fourth quarter demand. Cream is widely available in most of the region but demand from butter makers is mixed. Domestic butter demand is steady to lighter however 2025 booking is picking up. Export demand is stronger as U.S. prices become more competitive, said DMN.

Grade A nonfat dry milk finished Oct. 4 at $1.3525 per pound, down a half-cent but 17.25 cents above a year ago. Sales totaled 18 for the week and 118 for the month, up from 113 in August.

Dry whey saw its Oct. 4 close at 60.50 cents per pound, 0.75 cents higher and 30.75 cents above a year ago. There were 12 sales on the week and 38 for the month, up from 26 in August.

Falling corn, soybean, and hay prices and a rising milk price moved the August milk feed price ratio higher again, up for the sixth time in the past seven months. The latest Ag Prices report shows the August ratio at 2.79, up from 2.50 in July, and compares to 1.66 in August 2023.

The index is based on the current milk price in relationship to feed prices for a ration consisting of 51% corn, 8% soybeans and 41% alfalfa hay. One pound of milk would purchase 2.79 pounds of dairy feed of that blend.

The All Milk Price averaged $23.60 per hundredweight (cwt.), with a 4.09% butterfat test, up 80 cents from July, which had a 4.07 test, highest since December 2022, and $4 above August 2023, which had a 4.00% test.

California’s average, at $22.70 per cwt., was up 60 cents from July and $3.60 above a year ago. Wisconsin’s, at $23, was up $1.10 from July and $3.80 above a year ago.

The national corn price averaged $3.84 per bushel, down 39 cents from July and $1.89 below a year ago.

Soybeans averaged $10.30 per bushel, down a dollar from July and $3.80 per bushel below a year ago.

Alfalfa hay averaged $175 per ton, down $8 from July and $55 per ton below a year ago.

Looking at the cow side of the ledger; the August average cull price for beef and dairy combined was unchanged at $142 per cwt., $27 above August 2023, and $70.40 above the 2011 base average.

Quarterly milk cow replacements averaged $2,360 per head in July, up $240 from April, and $600 above July 2023. Cows averaged $2,100 per head in California, up $200 from April, and $435 above a year ago. Wisconsin’s average, at $2,650 per head, was up $270 from April and $740 per head above July 2023.

Milk production margins moved to the highest level since October 2014 at $15.14 per cwt. and were $1.45 per cwt. above July, according to dairy economist Bill Brooks, of Stoneheart Consulting in Dearborn, Mo.

The dairy industry has long used USDA’s monthly milk production data for tracking milk supplies and projecting dairy product output. Falling milk production typically signaled a decline in supplies of fluid milk and components.

But, a report this week from CoBank entitled “Why Milk Components Matter More Than Milk Production” challenges the norm. The report says “Decoupling fluid milk production and milk component production represents an important paradigm shift for the industry given growing consumer demand for manufactured dairy products.”

Speaking in the Oct. 7 Dairy Radio Now broadcast, CoBank dairy economist Corey Geiger said milk components have grown much and, while milk output has been down for 14 consecutive months, components, such as butterfat and protein, have been up in 12 of those 14 months.

Geiger said 80% or more of U.S. milk goes into manufactured products like cheese and butter and 90% of dairy farmers are paid on multiple component pricing so “It’s the components that matter and components matter to processors so this is a win-win situation.”

The report suggests the dairy industry would benefit from a more comprehensive monthly report from USDA that includes milk, protein and butterfat production levels. Geiger said it will take some work to make this change happen but “The industry needs to talk about how we get there.”