CoBank, the cooperative bank for agriculture, on Tuesday published an analysis of the impact of President-elect Trump’s plans for 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian products and 10% extra on Chinese products on agriculture and food imports to the United States. 

On LinkedIn, Tanner Ehmke, the CoBank lead economist on grains and oilseeds, said, “Mexico’s main exports to the U.S. are fruits, vegetables and other horticultural products — basically labor-intensive crops they can produce cheaper than the U.S. Groceries won’t be getting cheaper next year.”

“Canada’s main ag exports to the U.S. are grain and feed, canola oil (for use in biofuels), and fruit/vegetable/horticulture products,” Ehmke said.

“The tariff on canola oil imports from Canada will give a lift to U.S. soybean oil demand and buffer crush margins for U.S. soybean crushers. Feed prices in the U.S. won’t budge much due to ample corn and feed supplies from this year’s harvest.

“China’s ag exports to the U.S. are fruits/vegetables/horticulture products and processed oils (used cooking oil, or UCO, for biofuels). The main beneficiary again will be U.S. soybean crushers that will see demand shift away from UCO over to soybean oil,” Ehmke said.

Reuters said Trump tariffs could raise grocery, liquor bills — from beef and pork to avocados and tequila — and lead to produce shortages and price hikes and disrupt cattle and pork trade among the United States, Mexico and Canada.