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FAPRI releases annual ag market outlook prepared before coronavirus

-The Hagstrom Report

The outlook for the U.S. farm economy depends on the implementation of new trade agreements and the evolution of animal and human disease outbreaks, according to the annual U.S. Agricultural Market Outlook released today by the University of Missouri Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI).

“Macroeconomic assumptions are based on January forecasts by IHS Markit, which suggested moderate growth in the U.S. and global economies at that time,” said Patrick Westhoff, director of FAPRI.

“Those forecasts were prepared before much was known about the severity of the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak and before recent declines in stock market prices and interest rates.”

“While net farm income increases in 2020, under a baseline assumption of continued trade friction with China, other indicators of the health of the farm economy are not as positive,” FAPRI said in a news release.

“However, there is a scenario that incorporates the ‘phase 1’ trade agreement between China and the U.S. that suggests the possibility of a stronger outlook for U.S. commodity prices and farm incomes. Those results are highly dependent on specific assumptions about how the agreement will be implemented.”

To read the outlook, go to https://www.fapri.missouri.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/2020-U.S.-Agricultural-Market-Outlook.pdf.


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