Farm Bureau: African swine fever complicates world pork market
September 11, 2018
The outbreak of African swine fever in several places in China can dramatically impact world supply and demand for pork because China is by far the world's largest producer and consumer of pork, American Farm Bureau Federation economist Michael Nepveux wrote in a Market Intel analysis released Monday.
China is unlikely to turn to the United States for its import needs for several reasons, Nepveux wrote.
"We are in the middle of the trade spat with China, facing steep tariffs on U.S. pork imports into the country," he wrote.
"Even if a significant disruption were to happen, it would take quite a bit to overcome the 70 percent tariff that U.S. hams and shoulder cuts are facing."
"Additionally, China is ractopamine-free, and while the U.S. produces some 'racto-free' pork, it is not a sizable amount. China would be more likely to turn to another racto-free country such as the European Union or Canada before turning to the U.S. or Brazil."