U.S. agricultural exports would grow by $450 million per year under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement to succeed the North American Free Trade Agreement, but the retaliatory tariffs in response to the tariffs that President Donald Trump has imposed on steel and aluminum will cause U.S. exports to Mexico and Canada to decline by $1.8 billion, according to a study by Purdue University economists released today by the Farm Foundation.

The analysis was done by Maksym Chepeliev, Wallace E. Tyner and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe in Purdue’s Department of Agricultural Economics. It is being presented today in Washington at a Farm Foundation forum at the National Press Club.

With continued retaliatory tariffs from China and other trading partners, “the United States would see a decline in agricultural exports of $7.9 billion, thus overwhelming the small positive gains from USMCA,” the report says.