La Nina expected to bring increased precipitation patterns to the Rockies

There’s good news for farmers and ranchers in the northern Rockies, with optimistic weather predictions for expected precipitation this winter. And, the Climate Prediction Center continued issuing forecasts during the government shutdown with the official release of their early winter weather outlook on Oct. 16, 2025.

For starters, during late October, an atmospheric river event is forecast to bring increased chances of stormy weather over the western U.S. The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center says a moderate risk of heavy snow is favored for higher elevations of the northern Rockies and Great Basin, along with a moderate risk (40-60%) of high winds for parts of Montana, Wyoming, northeastern Utah and northwestern Colorado from Oct. 25-27.

A strong mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest favors the development of an ‘atmospheric river’ expected to bring periods of heavy rain, high winds, and high elevation heavy snow across parts of the northwestern U.S. beginning around Oct. 23.

Heavy precipitation is expected across coastal portions of southern Oregon and Washington into northern California.

Forecasters say travel may be impacted by heavy rain, snow and wind in the region.

Even with funding for a portion of the federal government expired on Sept. 30, 2025, the National Weather Service offices; which are a part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration branch of the U.S. Department of Commerce, are emphasizing that with the importance of protecting life and property, their NWS offices are still open.

“The U.S. government is closed. However, because the information this website provides is necessary to protect life and property, this site will be updated and maintained during the federal government shutdown,” the statement reads on NWS websites.

The CPC Winter outlook was released Thursday, Oct. 16, 2025, showing a typical La Niña pattern with colder than average temperatures favored across the northern part of the U.S., including northern Nebraska. Many contributors again eagerly provided the latest winter forecasts.

WYOMING

Autumn in Wyoming has already been getting a jump-start with its precipitation. “We’ve been under a pretty good pattern the first half of October, which has brought decent precipitation to many areas and hopefully the outlooks hold and we’ll continue to see some moisture through the coming months,” said Tony Bergantino, director, Wyoming State Climate Office and Wyoming CoCoRaHS state coordinator. (CoCoRaHS stands for Community Collaborative Rain, Hail & Snow Network.)

Forecasts for precipitation in Wyoming over the next few months are also optimistic, at least in some areas. “Starting out with November to January, if you take a diagonal line from the southwest corner of Wyoming to the northeast corner, on the northwest side of that line, the odds favor above-normal precipitation, while on the southeast side of the line, it’s best to look at climatology for expectations,” Bergantino said.

Probabilities for above-normal precipitation increase in the December to February time-frame, and cover more than the northern three-fourths of the state, with the northwest corner having a high probability of above-normal precipitation.

From January to March, the area expected to be above-normal, remains relatively the same, Bergantino said.

Temperature-wise, the southern two-thirds of the state are expecting above-normal temperatures during the November to January time-frame, although climatology is the best bet for predictions the further north you go in Wyoming.

“As we go forward into the winter months, a bit more uncertainty creeps in, with only a sliver of northern Wyoming expecting below-normal temperatures, but the rest of Wyoming has equal chances of either above, below or normal temperatures. The chances for cold dominate further from January to March, with the northern half of the state leaning toward below-normal temps,” Bergantino told The Fence Post.

COLORADO

With a powerful atmospheric river event forecast for late October, extreme northwest Colorado is advised to prepare for a moderate risk of high winds Oct. 25-27. The strong winds are also expected northward into much of Wyoming and western Montana.

The official CPC winter forecast calls for above normal temperatures across southwest portions of Colorado, to equal chance of having either below, near, or above normal temperatures for the winter season.

As for precipitation, there is an equal chance of below, near or above normal precipitation through the winter months, except for a very small sliver in southwest Colorado of below normal.

La Niña continues to develop across the Pacific Ocean, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) anomalies now around -0.8C. Most model guidance has the SST anomalies peaking in the -0.8 to -1.0C range in November and December, before SSTs warm back into neutral conditions in January to February.

“Looking at weak La Niña events (which this one will be) there’s a mixed bag of above, near and below normal precipitation across the Colorado Plains. This tends to match up well with the CPC outlook. Historically, across all La Niña events, the Plains tend to lean drier. For the mountains, La Niña is favored for above normal precipitation in December and January,” said Kyle Mozley, meteorologist, National Weather Service, Pueblo, Colo.

While the snow season is starting out slowly, it could pick up steam, especially in December again, where La Niña conditions are more heavily favored.

“Across the Plains, we will need to pay attention to the various teleconnection oscillations, especially the Arctic Oscillation and Pacific North America climate patterns. These two look to have the highest impacts through the winter months on the Plains (-AO favors dry, +PNA favors wet,)” Mozley said.

Regarding drought, the recent very heavy rainfall over the San Juan Mountains has helped alleviate drought there. Drought continues across the West Slope, into north central Colorado. The Plains look to be in decent shape, with a few pockets of a low drought category (D0) showing up across southeast Colorado.

KANSAS

Kansas, in the short-term continues expecting above-normal temperatures the next few weeks with no widespread freeze forecast, and late-planted soybeans and sorghum are still being harvested and benefiting from the delay.

The Climate Prediction Center is calling for a winter featuring equal chances of having: at/above/or below-normal precipitation and average temperatures.

Although the current La Niña puts Kansas in the middle of the warm/cold and wet/dry battleground, and trends are hard to forecast in the seasonal sense, Kansans should watch the Polar Vortex which will play a significant role and may produce extreme cold outbreaks.

“This pattern appears loaded for colder-than-normal conditions north of Kansas and subtle shifts in the jet stream could lead to a colder than normal winter, similar to last years,” said Christopher “Chip” Redmond, meteorologist, Kansas State University Weather Data Library/Mesonet manager.

An additional concern is the growing drought trends to the south of Kansas. History favors substantially increased warm/dry extremes for portions of Texas and Oklahoma and with La Niña expected for this coming winter, drought to the south usually trends northward by early spring. Kansas observes more wildfire activity during La Niña winter/springs and sees more acres burned than in a Nino or neutral phase.

“We already have a substantial grass loading from timely moisture over the growing season (especially in central and west Kansas) and any timed drought around our peak fire season may exacerbate wildfire concerns this dormant season,” Redmond said.

NEBRASKA

The CPC shows above-normal precipitation in November for much of northern Kansas northward into almost all of Nebraska, except the very southeast corner. November temperatures are expected to be slightly above-normal in all of Kansas, and the southern half of Nebraska.

Then, getting into the winter months, Kansas and Nebraska both have equal chances of having either normal, or above or below normal precipitation.

Winter temperatures will be slightly above-normal for Kansas and the southern half of Nebraska. But more average winter temperatures are forecast for the northern half of Nebraska.