Northern Colorado may benefit from La Niña, New Mexico gets some drought relief

The official statement for this winter is “La Niña conditions are present and favored to persist through December 2025-February 2026, with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely in January-March 2026 (55% chance),” from the Climate Prediction Center.

“They are saying it will likely be a weak La Niña but still have some impacts to the winter,” said Dave DuBois, Ph.D., New Mexico State Climatologist and State Coordinator of Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow Network or CoCoRaHS.

La Niña is correlated with wetter than normal conditions across Colorado’s northern Rockies during the months of December-February. After that, most of the state tends to be drier during La Niña in spring.

“However, it’s not clear if La Niña will stick around through spring and seasonal outlooks always come with a high degree of uncertainty,” said Peter Goble, assistant state climatologist, Colorado Climate Center/Colorado and CoCoRaHS coordinator.

The latest climate information about La Niña and drought conditions was scheduled to be included during the Intermountain West Drought and Climate Outlook Webinar Oct. 7, but the webinar, hosted every other month by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and NOAA’s National Integrated Drought Information System, was canceled due to the government shutdown that began Oct. 1. NOAA is a bureau within the U.S. Department of Commerce.

Meanwhile, National Weather Service offices are emphasizing that with the importance of protecting life and property, their offices are still open.

Meanwhile, The Fence Post learned of many interesting climate details.

COLORADO
Interestingly, it was simultaneously one of the 10 wettest May-September seasons on record for parts of eastern Colorado, and one of the 10 driest May-September seasons on record for parts of western Colorado.

September statewide in Colorado was also the 36th warmest.

According to the Colorado Climate Center, while the 2025 Colorado snowpack was near normal for its northern mountain ranges, on the other hand, it was well below-normal for its southern mountain ranges. A dry spring and hot summer led to below normal runoff and rapid drought development across western Colorado.

“We saw some of the lowest streamflows on record for the White River this summer. The Lee Fire near Meeker blew up into the fifth largest wildfire in state history. This was the most active wildfire season we have experienced statewide since 2020, which was the largest ever recorded,” Goble told The Fence Post.

Eastern Colorado fared better this year. “Most of our eastern plains experienced above normal moisture this season. Portions of northeastern Colorado experienced a top 10 wet May-September,” he said.

There was also flooding and severe weather. The CSU Plainsman Research Center in Walsh, Colo., received 5.02 inches of precipitation Aug. 30, which was the single wettest day in the station’s history, Goble said.

Generally, western Colorado has been experiencing drought relief, with conditions improving since late August. In some cases, too much drought relief, Goble noted. “Remnant moisture from Hurricane Priscilla blasted southwestern Colorado in mid-October, leading to flooding, including along the San Juan River through Pagosa Springs.”

Also, 99 degrees in Las Animas and Lamar was their maximum daily temperature. On the other extreme, Jefferson near Leadville, reported 16 degrees as its minimum daily temperature.

NEW MEXICO

The big takeaway for New Mexico — even though much of the state is still 69 percent in drought — overall statewide they had a decent monsoon season which provided much-needed moisture. The west side has largely been in severe to extreme drought. There’s no drought in northeast New Mexico but that increases to moderate drought in central sections.

The state climatologist is often asked, what it takes to get out of a drought.

“Slower rains are more beneficial, but once you’ve been in drought for several years, it takes a couple good years of above-average precipitation (winter through summer) to get out of drought for many areas,” DuBois said.

Most of their drought stretches from the four corners (where Colorado, Utah, Arizona and New Mexico connect) and western New Mexico from McKinley down to Hildago County at the Mexican border. The eastern half of the state has fared well, some at 300 percent of normal precipitation. Meanwhile central New Mexico is hit or miss. Some southwest areas plagued by wildfires this summer have missed out on rain.

There was also very little snow this past water year (Oct. 1, 2024, to Sept. 30, 2025, in the Intermountain West).

Thankfully, mid-October’s tropical moisture from former Hurricane Priscilla in the Pacific brought widespread rains northward, including western New Mexico, which helped the drought, somewhat. The tropical remnants also moved into Arizona and southwest Colorado, which stays in the soil for several months.