OECD, FAO: Ag output growth to keep food prices low; uncertainties remain
Food prices should remain low for the next decade due to technological innovation, but uncertainties about food production remain, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, said in an annual joint report issued Monday.
The 2019 edition of the OECD-FAO Agriculture Outlook projected that yield improvements and higher production intensity, driven by technological innovation, will result in higher output even as global agricultural land use remains broadly constant.
Direct greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, meanwhile, are expected to grow by some 0.5% annually over the coming decade, below the 0.7% rate of the past 10 years, and below the projected output growth rate, indicating declining carbon intensity, the report said.
At the same time, disruptions from trade tensions, the spread of crop and animal diseases, growing resistance to antimicrobial substances, regulatory responses to new plant-breeding techniques, and increasingly extreme climatic events create new uncertainties, the two organizations said.
Uncertainties also include evolving dietary preferences in light of health and sustainability issues and policy responses to alarming worldwide trends in obesity, they added.
The report also “finds that consumption levels of sugar and vegetable oil are projected to rise, reflecting the ongoing trend towards prepared and more processed foods, notably in many rapidly-urbanizing low and middle-income countries.”
“Concerns about health and wellbeing, meanwhile, are likely to nudge numerous higher-income countries towards lower consumption of red meat and a shift from vegetable oils to butter,” the groups said in a news release.
“In addition, the demand for feed crops is projected to outpace animal production growth in countries where the livestock sector is evolving from traditional to commercialized production systems, while the use of agricultural commodities as feedstock to produce biofuels is expected to grow primarily in the developing countries.
“Trade in agricultural and fisheries commodities should also expand over the coming decade at around 1.3 percent annually, slower than over the past decade (3.3 percent average), as growth in global import demand is expected to slow.”
See the entire report at http://www.hagstromreport.com/assets/2019/2019_0708_OECE-FAO-Ag_Outlook-2019-en.pdf?utm_source=MadMimi&utm_medium=email&utm_content=The+Hagstrom+Report+%7C+Tuesday+07_09_2019&utm_campaign=20190708_m152587934_The+Hagstrom+Report+%7C+Tuesday+07_09_2019&utm_term=2019_0708_OECE-FAO-Ag_Outlook-2019_jpg_3F1562622891.
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