Mostly drier-than-normal spring forecast for Central Plains and Rockies

Appreciable winter snowpack will help the Rockies and Central Plains get a good start to spring, then as spring pushes in, the fading La Niña is forecast to bring mostly drier than normal conditions, according to the forecast just released from the Climate Prediction Center on Feb. 20, 2025.

Although farmers and ranchers from the Rockies to the Plains benefited with abundant snow cover, some areas especially in Nebraska and parts of Kansas are dealing with drought.  

Meanwhile, early spring should feature ongoing episodic cold outbreaks similar to those observed in January and February 2025, which will originate across northwestern North America, likely leading to colder-than-normal conditions from the Pacific Northwest to the northern High Plains. 

“At times, cold air could still reach the Central Plains, but overall odds favor above-normal spring temperatures as far north as southwestern Kansas and southern and western Colorado,” said Brad Rippey, USDA meteorologist in the Office of the Chief Economist-World Agricultural Outlook Board in Washington, D.C.

Although El Niño–Southern Oscillation-neutral conditions are likely to return by the end of spring, lingering atmospheric disruptions related to La Niña are still expected to influence spring temperatures and precipitation. For the heart of the 2025 growing season, there is considerable uncertainty in the weather outlook, although several forecasts tools suggest that hotter, and drier-than-normal weather could be a concern across roughly the western half of the country.

February cold waves made for some challenging conditions for producers and animals in the beginning stages of calving and lambing. Some additional cold waves are possible in early spring, although the worst has passed, Rippey said.

WINTER WHEAT

Prospects for winter wheat are overall favorable, with a few caveats, Rippey noted:

• Due to autumn drought, wheat unevenly emerged and/or was poorly established, notably in Nebraska and South Dakota. 
• By end of January, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that 34% of the wheat in Nebraska and 28% in South Dakota was rated in very poor to poor condition. Further south, only 14% of the Kansas crop rated very poor to poor.
• The January cold wave brought sub-0 degrees F temperatures down to the Texas panhandle. Snow cover was patchy and shallow in many areas of the Plains, leading to an increased risk of winter-kill.
• Wheat’s protective snow cover was much broader during the coldest February weather, helping insulate wheat from temperatures of -20 degrees F or below from Nebraska northward, Rippey reported.

WYOMING 

Wyoming continues having improvements in snowpack, especially in the west and the southern tier of Wyoming. Ten of the basins are now at or above median snowpack for this date but, unfortunately, basins such as the Powder, Belle Fourche, Cheyenne/Niobrara and Lower North Platte are still under 90% of median. 

“The Powder last year was running below its all-time minimum for much of the season, making this another year of below-median snowpack which is concerning for water supply. Flow volumes are looking at being below 50% to 90% of normal for many of the areas of the state,” said Tony Bergantino, director of the Wyoming State Climate Office and Wyoming CoCoRaHS (Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network) State Coordinator-Wyoming mesonet director.

Regarding the March thru May outlook, Wyoming is expecting average temperatures, with a slight leaning toward above-normal temperatures in the far southwest, then leaning toward below-normal temperatures for the northern 20% of the state which has been quite cold this winter.

The precipitation forecast, unfortunately is for below-normal precipitation for the southern two-thirds to three-quarters of Wyoming, with the likelihood of below-normal precipitation increasing the further south you go, Bergantino said. The northern tier of the state has equal chances for having above/below/normal precipitation.

COLORADO

Other than two snow storms one near Thanksgiving and the other in early November, it’s been fairly dry in eastern Colorado. Also, December’s temperatures were much above-normal across all of Colorado. Precipitation and snowfall were both below-normal across the state. 

Precipitation and snowfall depend on where you are. 

“Areas from the Palmer Divide, south along the I-25 corridor are running above-normal, trailing off to near-normal closer to the Kansas border. Precipitation normals for both January and February are around 0.30″ for both Colorado Springs and Pueblo, so it does not take much to be above-normal,” said Kyle Mozley, meteorologist, National Weather Service in Pueblo, Colo.

COLORADO MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK

Most of the upper Arkansas and South Platte basins snowpack are running near normal. However, snowpack for the Rio Grande and West Slope are below-normal. The San Juan Mountains snowpack is running much below-normal so far. 

“The North American Oscillation and Pacific North American Oscillation will be the main drivers as we move through spring. Long range outlooks for both these teleconnections indicate dry conditions prevailing through May, although this should be taken with a grain of salt, as the predictability beyond three weeks is not reliable,” Mozley said. 

La Niña conditions prevail across the Pacific Ocean, however, recent trends indicate La Niña peaked in late January and doesn’t have much influence on mountain precipitation beyond January, Mozley noted. 

The Madden Julian Oscillation is also weak and having little influence on precipitation across Colorado until late March to early April, when there could be a period of increased precipitation, he said. 

“Looking at the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) outlooks, dry and warm for Colorado… snowpack will likely remain less than normal for the San Juan/Rio Grande basins, and remain near normal to slightly below-normal for the upper Arkansas and South Platte basins,” Mozley said. This is also reflected in the drought monitor, with increasing drought conditions along the west slope.

NEBRASKA

The CPC is forecasting some lagging impacts from a decreasing La Niña.

“While the oceanic climate pattern La Niña has been a driver for the winter, La Niña will most likely impact early spring (March) before waning to neutral conditions during April and May,” said Michael L. Moritz, warning coordination meteorologist, National Weather Service in Hastings, Neb. Neutral conditions means neither La Niña or El Nino impacts expected.

It does mean that temperatures for March, April and May have no strong trend to support anything other than near-normal conditions. While individual months could be warmer or colder than normal, the overall outlook favors closer to normal temperatures for the entire three-month period.

“Precipitation is a different story, as signals are stronger for drier than normal conditions across the southern United States. The outlook calls for dry conditions to spill across almost all of Nebraska and Kansas this spring. The western quarter of Kansas has the highest likelihood of experiencing a drier than normal spring,” Moritz said.

Moderate to extreme drought currently has a stronghold across Nebraska, with mostly moderate drought across northern Kansas. An expected drier than normal spring could lead to drought expansion across the western half of Kansas and into southwest Nebraska.

“Drier than normal conditions in the spring may be advantageous for planting, but can lead to issues with plant emergence and early season crop growth, and the potential for wildfires, particularly on hot and windy days until green-up is complete,” Moritz said.

KANSAS

Soil moisture surplus exists from this winter’s precipitation and is a source for hope for spring planting and wheat stands, although much of Kansas has been slowly drying out. The CPC expects this drying could expand into western Kansas through May.

“The storm track is going to have a significant impact on precipitation trends through spring. If we do keep La Niña and a negative PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which can strongly impact global weather) through the spring as models suggest, this will likely shift severe weather and precipitation anomalies to the east of most of Kansas. This means any residual soil moisture will quickly be utilized as we go through early spring,” said Christopher “Chip” Redmond, Kansas State University meteorologist and Kansas mesonet manager. That could potentially increase water stress on wheat and any early planted crops.

An additional concern is a potentially active wildfire season that may emerge in March and April.

Meanwhile, many surface water levels in ponds/lakes briefly improved this winter. However, as ice melts, substantial moisture is needed to maintain desired levels before producers would need to start hauling water again,” said Redmond.