US farmland values enter new phase shaped by localized market signals

OMAHA, Neb. — The U.S. agricultural land market is shifting after years of steady growth. Although land values are still high historically, current signs indicate a more complex situation driven by local and regional factors rather than nationwide trends.

“After years of steady growth, we’re seeing the farmland market stabilize,” said Colton Lacina, senior vice president of real estate operations at Farmers National Company. “This isn’t a sign of collapse but a recalibration that reflects current commodity prices, input costs and regional production conditions.”

Farmland demand now varies widely by location. Areas with high crop yields, diversified farms, and dependable groundwater continue to attract buyers and maintain steady values. Regions facing commodity price pressure, lower yields, or limited alternative income sources are seeing lower demand.

“Farmland values are increasingly determined locally, sometimes down to the township,” Lacina said. “Buyers are carefully assessing soil quality, the percentage of tillable acres, water access, and how a parcel fits into their current operations. Those details matter more than ever.”

Despite mixed signals, market conditions remain favorable for many sellers. Farmland remains a resilient, long-term asset, and well-priced properties are attracting strong interest.

“This is still a workable window for sellers,” Lacina noted. “The key is understanding current local demand and choosing the right approach to bring land to market. Sellers who partner with experienced local land professionals often see better results because they’re aligned with how buyers think today.”

The makeup of buyers remains steady, but their strategies are changing. Active farmers remain the largest group of buyers, yet many are more cautious, weighing profitability concerns against long-term ownership goals. They focus on high-quality land within their established areas.

Investor interest from both local and institutional buyers remains steady. Many view the moderation in land values as an opportunity to enter the market at more disciplined prices.

“Investor buyers are focused on fundamentals,” Lacina said. “They’re targeting land with strong lease potential and reliable income that can support long-term returns.”

Farmers National Company anticipates stable U.S. farmland values overall, with ongoing divergence driven by local conditions. Opportunities may emerge in regions with weaker demand, and sellers’ success will depend on accurate market insights and timing.

“The farmland market isn’t weakening; it’s becoming more selective,” Lacina added. “Whether buying or selling, the advantage will go to those who understand their local market and work with professionals who live and breathe those nuances daily.”

SOUTH-CENTRAL REGION: KANSAS, SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, MISSOURI

The land markets in Kansas, Missouri, and south-central Nebraska continue to show resilience, supported by strong agricultural communities and a solid base of productive farmland, according to Steve Morgan, area sales manager with Farmers National Company.

Irrigated tracts with dependable water sources and high-quality dryland farms remain the most in-demand properties, reflecting ongoing demand for reliable crop production, he noted.

“Throughout much of the region, the trend is consistent: farms with disadvantages — such as soil limitations, access issues or other flaws — are the first to see a decline in value. Conversely, pasture and recreational properties remain highly attractive. Larger grassland tracts are especially desirable for grazing and livestock operations, while smaller recreational parcels are actively sought by buyers interested in hunting or outdoor recreation,” Morgan said.

Transaction volume remains steady and closely matches the pace of the past two years, which were slightly below the record highs of 2021 and 2022, he noted.

“Although prices have softened from those peak years, the market remains healthy, supported by limited supply and ongoing interest from local operators and investors. Overall, Kansas and Missouri continue to provide a stable environment for land ownership, with quality and location remaining the main factors influencing buyer decisions,” he added.

WESTERN REGION: WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA, NORTHWEST KANSAS, NORTHEASTERN COLORADO

The land market across central and western Nebraska, northwest Kansas, and northeast Colorado continues to show mixed results heading into the New Year. Auction outcomes have been inconsistent across the region, with some properties drawing strong buyer interest while others struggle to gain momentum, according to Cole Nickerson, area sales manager for Farmers National Company.

“One of the main factors shaping these results is local economic strength. Areas with strong financial fundamentals are seeing competitive bidding and stable prices, especially for high-quality farmland. Productive cropland with good access and desirable soils remains in demand and maintains premium values,” Nickerson said.

“Conversely, marginal land, including tracts with limited access, difficult terrain, or less fertile soils, is seeing some price pressure. Buyers remain cautious, and these properties may need more competitive pricing to sell,” he added.

Pastureland sales remain strong in the market. Larger tracts with good water, access and quality fencing are fetching higher prices. Areas with active cattle production continue to see gains in both pasture and farmland values, supported by higher cattle prices over the past few years. 

“Overall, although the market isn’t uniformly strong, quality continues to sell well. Sellers of top-tier land remain in a strong position, while those with less desirable properties may need to adjust their expectations in the current environment,” Nickerson said.

WEST-CENTRAL REGION: EASTERN NEBRASKA, WESTERN IOWA

Buyers using tax-deferred exchange (1031) funds and those viewing land as a long-term investment continue to support land values in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, according to Chanda Scheuring, area sales manager for Farmers National Company. These buyers have helped stabilize farmland prices for high-quality tracts or those with development potential. Conversely, properties with lower production capabilities are feeling the impact of depressed commodity prices over the past few years, Scheuring said.

“The supply of farms for sale remains similar to last year, but the overall buyer pool appears to be shrinking quickly. Farmers and investors are becoming more selective about which properties to add to their portfolios and the prices they’re willing to pay. They are only making purchases they feel comfortable with, given tighter profit margins,” she added.

“With the changing market, it’s important to partner with a local real estate professional to not only understand the current value of your personal farm property but also determine the best way to market it in a shifting economy,” Scheuring noted.