Cargill CEO travels with Trump to China amid soybean questions

Cargill CEO Brian Sikes will be among 17 corporate executives who will travel with President Trump to China this week. 

Sikes’ presence raises the possibility of a deal for China to buy U.S. commodities. 

Ben Smith of Semafor wrote. “In Donald Trump’s personalist Washington, these big American companies… tend to drive policy far more than any broader strategy or ideology.”

But CoBank, the Denver-based bank for co-operatives, said in a newsletter Monday  that “China doesn’t need U.S. soybeans” but might commit to buying more corn, wheat, sorghum or other agricultural commodities.

Tanner Emke, CoBank’s lead grain and oilseeds economist wrote, “Despite a late 2025 bilateral agreement committing China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually through 2028, a 10% supplemental Chinese tariff remains in place on U.S. soybeans.”

“China’s soybean stocks are approaching historic levels, Brazil continues to hold a strong share of the market, and ongoing tensions related to Iran further hinder the normalization of U.S.-China trade,” Emke said.

“As a result, it is unlikely that China will commit to purchasing more U.S. soybeans. China may instead commit to buying corn, wheat, sorghum or other agricultural commodities.

“Soybean crush margins in China are also negative. With ample reserves of soyoil, China is now exporting soyoil to India,” Emke said.

“Chinese consumption of soyoil, meanwhile, is not likely to be strong with a slowing economy. Chinese hog prices are also at 16-year lows, discouraging Chinese farmers from herd expansion or increasing feed rations. Additional soybean imports from the U.S. would have to be stockpiled at a time when Chinese soybean supply is already large and demand continues to slow.”

Ehmke concluded, “The Iran war will likely dictate most of the discussion. It is not expected that U.S. agricultural export discussions will have the significance they once did.”