OECD-FAO: Farm incomes to rise amid volatility

Global average gross agricultural income per worker is projected to increase by 9% by 2035, driven by productivity gains and broadly stable agricultural prices, but there will be market volatility in the same period, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said in their annual joint report released Monday. 

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-203 estimates that if the frequency of shocks observed in recent years continues, there is a 25% probability that agricultural incomes in 2035 will be lower than current levels. Short term risks are also significant, as recent energy price hikes and resulting reductions in fertilizer use are likely to affect agricultural production in 2027. 

Under stable conditions, global agricultural and fisheries production is projected to expand by 13% over the next ten years, driven mainly by productivity improvements and production intensification. This growth will be concentrated in Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America.